1 edition of The Accuracy of Population Projections found in the catalog.
The Accuracy of Population Projections
Michael A. Stoto
|The Physical Object|
|Number of Pages||20|
Dashed lines represent population estimates for ‐ 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Under 18 years 65 years and over Population Under 18 Years and 65 Years and Over: to Population (in millions) The population 65 years and over is projected to become. The Population Bomb is a best-selling book written by Stanford University Professor Paul R. Ehrlich and his wife, Anne Ehrlich (who was uncredited), in It predicted worldwide famine in the s and s due to overpopulation, as well as other major societal upheavals, and advocated immediate action to limit population of a "population explosion" were widespread in the Author: Paul R. Ehrlich.
The population of a town as per the senses records are given below for the years to Assuming that the scheme of water supply will commence to function from , it is required to estimate the population after 30 years, i.e. in and also, the intermediate population i.e. 15 years after Year Population File Size: KB. Population Studies, 55 (), Printed in Great Britain Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, NICO KEILMAN Abstract. Between and , the United Nations (UN) published 16 sets of population projections for the world, its major regions, and countries. This paper reports the accuracy of.
Population projection is essential to governments, businesses, and research communities for many purposes. Although projection performance is often evaluated, we know very little about what factors affect projection accuracy. It is important to understand these factors in order to utilise the projections Author: Guangqing Chi, Donghui Wang. Population projection method. - Preferred method by demographers. It is detailed, very accurate for short-term projections, and can handle multiple variables. - Steps: 1. Population of the study area is divided into 5 year age groups, called cohorts (one for males and one for females). 2.
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Accuracy of Population Projections from the s to the s T he accuracy of multicountry population projections from the s to the s is assessed against current estimates. This assessment is meant to provide insight into the factors that affect accuracy and indirectly some understanding of the uncertainty of current and future projections.
In a 5-year projection, at least 60 percent of the bias in the projected population can be explained by base population bias. In a year projection, the variance explained by base population bias drops to about 40 percent, in a year projection to about 20 percent, and in a year projection, to about 10 percent.
the projection accuracy. occur. Users often interpret projections issued by gov-ernment agencies in this way. Throughout this article we regard all projections as predictions and therefore talk about the accuracy of population projections, interpreted as predictions.
Demographers analyze the accuracy of population pro-jections in two ways. all projections as predictions, and therefore can talk about the accuracy of population projections.
There are two ways to analyze their accuracy. The first is to specify a mathematical model for the growth of population, and explore the effects of variation in the inputs.
The Size: KB. Abstract Population projections are key elements of many planning and policy studies but are inherently inaccurate. This study of past population projection errors provides a means for constructing confidence intervals for future projections.
The Accuracy of Population Projections. MICHAEL A. STOTO*. Population projections are key elements of many planning and policy studies but are inherently inaccurate. This study of past population projection errors provides a means for constructing confidence intervals for future Size: 3MB.
16 UNITED NATIONS WORLD POPULATION PROJECTIONS They found a consistent overestimation of the projected growth rate in developing countries afterwhich was largely explained by the rapid slowdown of population growth in China. They also concluded that errors in the base population and in the growth rate of population immediately.
An evaluation of Statistics New Zealand population projections, – presents an evaluation of the accuracy of recent national and subnational population projections prepared by Statistics New Zealand.
While producers of statistics are inevitably focused on the quality, timeliness and cost-effectiveness of future statistics. This article considers the accuracy of the official national population projections made for the UK over the last forty or more years.
The findings take account of the revisions to population estimates following the Census and are largely similar to the findings of. An evaluation of Statistics New Zealand population estimates and projections, – evaluates the accuracy of recent national and subnational population estimates and projections.
The report focuses on estimates and projections of the total population produced and published sincealthough earlier projections are included where. A Guide to Global Population Projections Brian C. O'Neill 1 Deborah Balk 2 Melanie Brickman 3 Markos Ezra 4 Interdisciplinary studies that draw on long-term, global population projections often make limited use of projection results, due at least in part to the historically opaque nature of the projection by: 46 Box 15 Computer programs for population projections One of the first computer programs for making population projections was developed by the United Nations Population Division in.
While the accuracy for projections at state level is generally pretty good, projections at the locality level tend to be much more volatile. In Virginia Beach, the largest city in the state, population projections were unable to account for the significant drop.
Evaluating Population Projections—The Importance of Accurate Forecasting. Introduction The decennial census is a picture of the U.S. population as of April 1 of the census year, and every 10 years, the Bureau of the Census spends billions of dollars counting the United States population.
Genre/Form: Statistics: Additional Physical Format: Online version: Agrawal, Usha D., Population projections and their accuracy.
Delhi: B.R. Pub. Corp. This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and by: Both the peak eDNA rate and the area under the curve of the daily eDNA rate were highly predictive of the mark‐recapture population estimate, explaining % and % of the deviance, : Meredith Pochardt, Meredith Pochardt, Jennifer M.
Allen, Ted Hart, Sophie D. Miller, Douglas W. Population forecasts are generally quite accurate. Country-level forecasts, such as those made by the United Nations and the World Bank, miss the mark by Author: Jeremy Singer-Vine.
Population Projections Datasets A dataset is a file for public use to download for analysis in spreadsheet, statistical, or geographic information systems software. These files are designed for people interested in obtaining detailed data of the population projections for analytical purposes, and are available in CSV .csv) or Excel .xls) formats.
Evaluating the Accuracy of Population Forecasts Stoto, M.C. and Schrier, A.P. (), The accuracy of state population projections, Factors that place intrinsic limits on the accuracy of.
It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy.
It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. Download Accuracy of the U.S. Census Bureau National Population Projections and Their Respective Components of Change [PDF - population trends and their future repercussions for the size and distribution of the population became increasingly important as the US experienced major shifts in fertility and.
The accuracy of current population projections cannot be directly evaluated, but the success of previous global and country-level projections can be examined. Twelve times since the s, the UN has projected the world population size for the year